Prominent macro investor Dan Tapiero is maintaining a bold stance on Bitcoin (BTC): the current bull cycle remains intact, yet he warns that a severe correction — possibly up to 70% — could follow once this leg peaks.
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Bullish conviction anchored in fundamentals
Tapiero emphasises that Bitcoin’s bull market is underpinned by strong structural factors. He cites improved institutional adoption, growth in stablecoins, clearer regulation and a far more developed ecosystem than previous cycles. “I think the macro backdrop is still positive,” he told reporters.
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In his view, these developments signal that Bitcoin’s current ascent is more than a speculative paroxysm — it offers genuine utility and institutional traction beyond the retail‑frenzy phases of past cycles. For Tapiero, this means that while a peak may be approaching, the overall up‑trend remains alive.
The 70% correction risk: why it matters
Despite his bullishness, Tapiero is acute about the risk side:
“Bitcoin and ETH went down 90% in 2018. I’m not saying we’re going to go down 90%. I’m saying we can go down 70%.”
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This warning draws on the historical pattern of crypto markets: long up cycles followed by deep bear phases. Tapiero argues that even in a more mature market, corrections of this magnitude remain plausible—especially if sentiment sours or macro conditions deteriorate.
The implication: investors should prepare not just for upside, but also for one of the more dramatic drawdowns characteristic of crypto history. According to Tapiero, the timing of such a downturn could coincide with the exhaustion of the current rally.
What could trigger the downturn?
While the bull case remains alive, Tapiero and other analysts flag certain tipping points:
A sharp reversal in macro conditions: rising interest rates, tighter liquidity, or a risk‑off phase in equities could undermine crypto flows.
Loss of momentum or adoption signals: if institutional interest stalls or large holders begin to offload, investor confidence might falter.
Technical exhaustion: extended rallies often attract profit‑taking and trigger mechanical corrections in speculative markets.
In that sense, the 70% “risk range” is less a prediction than a cautionary framework: the market remains bullish but must hedge against structural vulnerabilities.
Why the centre‑line remains bullish
Despite the risk of a steep correction, Tapiero keeps a long‑term bullish view on Bitcoin. He argues that the bull run isn’t over, citing the improved institutional infrastructure and macro alignment behind digital assets. Some of his key points:
Bitcoin now has deeper liquidity, broader derivatives and ETF flows entering the market.
The narrative of Bitcoin as a hedge against monetary debasement and inflation remains potent.
If one holds a 10‑year horizon, Tapiero believes Bitcoin could target $1 million+—though such a view requires navigating multiple cycles.
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Hence, while a major correction is possible in the short‑to‑medium term, the longer‑term trend remains supportive.
What investors should take away
From Tapiero’s commentary, a dual message emerges:
Remain bullish but cautious. The structural bull case for Bitcoin is real, yet the risk of a deep correction is material.
Plan for volatility. A drawdown of up to 70% would not invalidate the bull trend — but it would test investor resolve and risk management severely.
Think long‑term. For investors with a decade‑plus horizon, Bitcoin’s macro backdrop remains compelling, even if interim turbulence arises.
Conclusion
Dan Tapiero’s view offers both confidence and a sobering reminder: Bitcoin’s bull run is very much alive, backed by stronger fundamentals than ever before. Yet, in his estimation, the march higher might not be smooth — a drawdown of up to 70% lies within the historical envelope of crypto cycles. Investors, therefore, should embrace the upside potential while preparing for one of the more dramatic corrections the asset class has historically seen.
