The world’s most famous bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of stress and several indicators suggesting what analysts call the “most bearish” phase yet in the current market. Although the cryptocurrency is trading at or above a number of long-term levels of support However, the sentiment has changed dramatically, bringing up the question of whether the bull run ending?
darkening market signals
Based on data from the chain analytics platform CryptoQuant According to data from the analytics platform CryptoQuant, cryptocurrency’s Bull Score Index has dropped to 20/100 which is that is described as extreme bearish terrain. TradingView+1 The price is below the 365-day average (around 102,000 USD) -the technical warning that was previously preceded by bear periods. TradingView
Other indicators of concern:
Bitcoin decreased below US$93,000 and erased its gains for 2025 and shattering a key support zone of US$95,000-97,000. Decrypt+1
Weekly SuperTrend indicator as well as a close below the 50-week moving average are triggering an “sell” signal — an indicator that is linked to significant drawdowns between 2018 and 2022. The Economic Times
Demand driven by institutions is dwindling as corporate treasury purchases have decreased and ETF inflows have decreased significantly. TradingView+1
A turning point or a mid-cycle wobble?
The problem is determining whether these signals are indicating the ending of the bull-cycle or a major decline within. People who favor a stronger bull scenario claim that, despite the fears, Bitcoin still has catalysts to be used: the adoption of institutions as well as global regulatory shifts and the ongoing development of the crypto infrastructure. For instance the analysts from Bernstein last year forecast that the Bitcoin bull run could continue into 2027. MarketWatch
However, the idea that the top of the cycle could be close is getting more attention. Certain analysts have noted that the current cycle started in the the early 2023s and lasted for 2 to 3 years – less than the previous four-year cycleswhich suggests that the timeframe may be maturing already. TradingView+1 One interpretation: “The final shake-out may be close,” reports one crypto analyst, which means there is a possibility that a second downfall could be feasible, but the worst could be in the near future. CryptoPotato+1
What investors should be watching
A variety of factors can influence whether a complete bear market occurs:
The levels of support A significant break below the US$88,000 to US$90,000 range that is the cost basis for active investors could trigger a serious alarm. Bitget+1
institutional flows If ETF outflows continue and large holders start liquidating, the momentum may shift in a definite negative direction.
Macro background Inflation: Rising rates as well as bond yields global liquidity and regulatory headwinds are risks.
Derivatives and sentiment The elevated implied volatility and negative rates for funding and a significant hedging of put options signal a defensive bias in the market. Bitget
Conclusion
The current state of Bitcoin’s market is cautious. Technicals are getting worse and sentiment is shaky. some institutional support has waned. It’s not a guarantee that the bull market is ending however, it suggests that the risk-reward ratio has moved to a cautious approach.
For those who are involved in the market The message is clear: it is not the right moment to be assuming a easy rise. It could instead be a time when the possibility of a downturn is still there before the possibility of a sustained recovery is realized. If this is a short correction or develops into an actual bear market is contingent on how well support levels are held as well as how institutional interest rates rise and macroeconomic conditions change.
