Bitcoin (BTC) market indicators have signaled potential trouble. Longtime holders – often referred to as “OG whales”–are selling off large sums, prompting analysts to predict an eventual fall toward $90,000.
Who are the Old Glory Whales and what are their activities?
Whales are individuals and entities holding substantial quantities of Bitcoin. “OG whales” refers to those who have held onto their BTC for at least seven years without selling significant quantities; on-chain data indicates this trend has now begun, however.
On-chain tracker data indicates long-term holders have been spending over $1,000 BTC/hour, according to reports from on-chain trackers. Around 400,000 BTC, valued at an estimated $45 billion, have reportedly been sold by long-term holders over the past month alone according to Bloomberg estimates.
One specific wallet move by “Owen Gunden”, signalling potential liquidation, was the transfer of 3,600 BTC ($372 million). For TradingView this move indicated potential liquidity.
These moves have created significant uncertainty as long-term holders have traditionally been key supporters of Bitcoin; by holding on and collecting coins they reduce supply; when they begin selling more supplies enter the market which could lower prices significantly.
What this means for bitcoin’s price
The mechanics are simple: when large holders sell, supply increases. Without demand increasing proportionally, price faces downward pressure. Here are a few key observations:
Recently, bitcoin traded about 18% below its all-time high ($126,000) seen early October on TradingView.
Technical analysts are closely watching Bitcoin (BTC). A “bear pennant” pattern has formed on its chart. Should support around $100,650 break, technical analyses predict an approximate 12% decline from current levels toward an eventual drop to around $96,600 as measured target.
Bitget Some analysts speculate there’s limited buying support between approximately $93K and $8500–an “air pocket” where price could change rapidly if sentiment changes quickly.
TradingView mes In short: When combined, heavy whale selling combined with weak technical support create a highly risky environment for Bitcoin.
Are there counterarguments?
Yes. Some market watchers contend that not all large transactions involve selling of assets for cash. For instance:
Willy Woo, an esteemed analyst, notes that many “OG dump” labels could simply represent coins moving between addresses (custody rotation) rather than liquidation.
Bitget
Furthermore, despite selling, Bitcoin’s market resilience remains intact, suggesting some buying or accumulation is taking place somewhere.
The wider macro environment (interest rates, regulation and institutional adoption) still provides potential upside for whale pressure mitigation.
What are the implications for traders and investors?
Short-term traders must keep a close eye on whether Bitcoin can maintain support near $100,000. A breakdown could trigger stop-loss cascades, leading to further drops.
Medium to long-term investors should view OG whale sales as a signal that caution or selective accumulation should be pursued over aggressive entry.
Risk management is paramount: since support below $93K appears thin, setting stop-losses or hedging or scaling exposure could be wise decisions.
Monitor on-chain data closely: large wallet activity, exchange inflows/outflows and whale-alert feeds may provide early warning of larger moves.
Conclusion Bitcoin’s recent decline below $100,000. has coincided with significant selling from long-term holders — an event many see as an alarm bell. If demand fails to absorb supply coming from these long-term holders (OG whales), bitcoin could revisit levels near $90,000. Whether or not that occurs depends on numerous factors including technical support, macro conditions and whether whale moves result in true liquidation of positions held. Investors should monitor closely while considering risk as high and making adjustments accordingly.
