In a shocking shift in direction in the crypto markets analysts are warning the possibility that Bitcoin (BTC) might be headed for a significant drop -and one research firm noting “no bottom is seen yet” and that a plunge to the $75,000 mark is being forecasted by certain derivatives traders. CoinDesk+1

Derivatives market signals
According to data from the blockchain-analytics firm Glassnode and the reports of CoinDesk the market for options has seen a disproportionately high attention to put options with a strike price with a price of 75,000 in exchange for Bitcoin -as a clear security hedge, or bet on the possibility that the price could fall below that mark. CoinDesk+1 Put-options activity is now responsible for most of the trading activity in certain segments, which indicates an evolution from bullish views to more cautious, or even more bearish positions. CoinDesk

The firm that conducts the research says these trends “signal the market isn’t assuming a bottom yet” and that the risk of downside remains high. They stress that the major strike levels have changed from premium call prices (such like $140k) to calls that are more moderate and more pronounced puts, which indicates lower bullish conviction. CoinDesk

The market conditions, catalysts and the environment
Bitcoin Recently, the price of Bitcoin dropped from a peak at around $90,000 to $83,000. That’s a decline that was over 20% within a brief period of time. CoinDesk+1 This drop is due to a weakening of liquidity, increased volatility, and general risk-off sentiment in the financial markets. The open interest in futures has dipped and sentiment among retail investors has fallen into what analysts call “extreme fear” territory. CoinDesk+1

The analysis suggests that if significant technical support levels fall — especially between $90K and $85K zone — the next important structural support may be lower, perhaps in the $70K to $85K range or below. A few model-based estimates and the positioning of options support the idea that $75K is an appropriate value. CryptoRank+1

What does this mean for investors and traders
The abundance of put flows as well as the significant exposure to contracts with a downside risk suggest that they are taking a more cautious or defensive attitude. Some may be taking advantage of current long positions instead of outright shorting. For investors and long-term holders in the absence of an obvious bottom suggests increased risk of uncertainty, which is a sign that the market might not be yet ready for a return to a bullish trend.

This also means that relying on the historical bottoms or an “bounce back quickly” narrative is likely to be a mistake. Research firm warns believing the current level is a floor can expose investors to additional losses if an enlarge structural change occurs.

Caveats and risks
An important note is that, despite this bearish trend, Bitcoin remains volatile and vulnerable to rapid changes in the regime. Positive catalysts like the inflow of institutional capital, clarity on regulatory issues or macroeconomic easing could cause a dramatic reverse. Also, the impact of technical issues or market perceptions could change rapidly, and some models suggest that the $70K-$72K area could be potential buying opportunities if they are test. CryptoRank

Also, be aware that this article is primarily about the market and signals for positioning but not an “prediction” in the sense of certain results. Cryptocurrency market speculation is highly risky and past performance doesn’t suggest future outcomes.

Conclusion
The recent decline in Bitcoin and the rise in bearish derivatives and the shift in the strike price towards $75,000 puts are an unambiguous message: the majority of traders are now convinced that the market is able to take on greater room for downside. The lack of indicators that point to an unchanging bottom further increases the skepticism. The question of whether Bitcoin will actually reach $75K or even rebound prior to then is still unclear. However, for the moment the market for derivatives is indicating that the risk of bigger losses is definitely in the air.

Bitcoin (BTC)$82,979.00-$7,055.00(-7.84%)Today 1D 5D 1M 6M YTD 1Y 5Y max