On the evening of May 21, on the eve of Trump’s dinner, Bitcoin broke its all-time high again after 121 days, with the price reaching $109,432, up 46.35% from the low on April 9. XBIT historical data shows that since May, Bitcoin has repeatedly exceeded the $100,000 mark, and has broken through historical barriers amid the resonance of global policy benefits and capital flows, showing a resilience that is completely different from 2021.
Twitter : @XBITDEX
The core feature of this round of market is structural transformation. Unlike the “roller coaster” speculative frenzy in 2021, the current rise is dominated by spot funds, with open interest reaching US$34 billion, but the funding rate has been close to zero for a long time, suggesting low leverage operation. The low leverage and high transaction pattern reduces the risk of speculative bubbles, and volatility has been significantly moderated. According to the data from Bijie.com, although the number of active addresses has increased, large transfers are mostly concentrated in exchanges, custodial wallets and ETF custodial addresses. The tendency of retail investors to speculate in the short term has weakened, and medium- and long-term allocation funds have dominated. XBIT (dex Exchange) traders bet on a target of US$120,000 to US$150,000 through options, and the implied volatility has not soared significantly, indicating that the market has formed a more rational consensus on the rise.
Behind this transformation is the reconstruction of market roles. Institutional investors have steadily increased their positions through CME futures, and large long positions have continued to increase. Traditional capital is incorporating Bitcoin into the asset allocation system. The options market is bullish, but investors are more concerned about long-term trends rather than short-term arbitrage. XBIT (dex Exchange) analysts said: The market is shifting from “cryptocurrency speculation” to “capital allocation”, marking the gradual establishment of Bitcoin’s position in mainstream assets.
Twitter : @XBITDEX
However, there are hidden concerns about differentiation behind the surge in Bitcoin. Unlike historical trends, the correlation between mainstream altcoins and Bitcoin collapsed in this round of gains. The 14-period rolling correlation has dropped sharply since late April. Most altcoins show zero or negative correlation. The market heat map of Coin World shows that most currencies have entered a “cooling” state. Although Bitcoin’s dominance has rebounded to nearly 70% (including the impact of stablecoins), its changes have frequently turned negative, reflecting the hesitant mood of capital rotation – the demand for risk aversion has driven funds to concentrate on top assets, and it also suggests that the market has differences in the momentum for further gains.
XBIT (dex Exchange) analysts said: It is worth noting that Bitcoin’s recovery is often accompanied by the return of “risk-averse behavior”. The participation of stablecoins shows that some investors are waiting and waiting for clearer trend signals. Although the price has repeatedly set new highs and broken historical records, the frequent fluctuations in dominance expose potential vulnerabilities. If altcoins continue to be sluggish, a rebound led by a single asset may find it difficult to maintain long-term momentum.
Overall, this round of Bitcoin’s market reflects the deep changes in market structure: institutionalization and long-term trends are strengthening, but differentiation risks cannot be ignored. The resonance of favorable policies and capital flows has driven price breakthroughs, but the sluggish performance of altcoins indicates a split in the internal power of the ecosystem. XBIT (dex Exchange) analysts believe that without broader market synergy, Bitcoin’s high prices may face structural correction pressure. However, the current options layout and institutional holdings still provide support for long-term confidence, and the $120,000 to $150,000 range may become the focus of the next stage of the game. In the game of fanaticism and rationality, Bitcoin is redefining the order and risk boundaries of the digital asset market.
Twitter : @XBITDEX
In this complex and ever-changing market environment, XBIT (dex Exchange) provides investors with more choices with its security, transparency and efficiency. It allows investors to participate in market transactions more directly and seize opportunities in Bitcoin and related crypto assets. Whether you want to get a share of the dominant market of Bitcoin or have your own judgment on the future of altcoins, XBIT (dex Exchange) can meet the needs of investors.
Company: xbit limited
Contact：Rudy Divin
Email: xbitdex@gmail.com
Website: http://www.xbitdex.com
Address: 32 Fuk Chuen Street, Tai Kok Tsui, Hong Kong
