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The Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell by another 3.1 million barrels to 286.6 million barrels—the lowest level since 1982–83. The SPR is now filled to only about 40% of its authorized capacity of 714 million barrels.
The reserve has declined sharply under both the Biden and Trump administrations, with two wars—and the resulting surges in global oil prices—playing a central role.
Here is how the SPR got here:
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January 20, 2021: The SPR held approximately 638 million barrels when President Biden took office.
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2022: Biden authorized the release of 180 million barrels following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It was the largest emergency drawdown in SPR history, lowering inventories to roughly 375 million barrels by year-end.
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2023: Inventories continued falling, reaching approximately 347 million barrels during the summer.
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2023–2024: The Department of Energy began partially refilling the reserve, purchasing approximately 59 million barrels. Congress also canceled 140 million barrels of previously mandated sales.
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January 2025: The SPR stood near 394 million barrels when Biden left office—a net decline of approximately 244 million barrels, or 38%, during his presidency.
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2025–February 2026: Purchases under the Trump administration helped lift the reserve to approximately 415 million barrels.
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Early 2026: Following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Trump authorized the release of as much as 172 million barrels—just below Biden’s 180-million-barrel Ukraine-war release.
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August 26, 2026: The SPR stood at 286.6 million barrels, its lowest level in more than four decades.
Since Trump returned to office, the reserve has fallen from approximately 394 million barrels to 286.6 million—a decline of 107.4 million barrels. That is considerably smaller than the 244-million-barrel decline during the Biden administration, but the direction remains troubling. As during the Biden years, war and sharply higher oil prices have been the primary catalysts. The difference is during the Biden term, the war was Russia invading Ukraine. Gasoline prices over that war start period went from $3.53 per gallon in late February 2022 to $4.32 by mid-March—a 22% increase in just three weeks. Prices eventually peaked at $5.01 in June, approximately 42% above their pre-invasion level before coming down (the end of term price was $3.11). During the Trump term, it has been a US started war with Iran (self inflicted wound). A gallon of gas since the start of the war has gone from $2.98 before the war and is at $4.08 currently.
Can Venezuelan oil refill the SPR?
On Friday, Trump said the United States had secured a 25-year agreement giving a US-backed venture 55% control over 17 Venezuelan oil fields containing more than 65 billion barrels of proven reserves. He said the oil would help “fill up” the SPR, describing it as a gift from Venezuela to the American people.
The announcement followed an earlier January 2026 arrangement under which Venezuela’s interim authorities agreed to transfer between 30 million and 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the United States at market prices following Nicolás Maduro’s capture by US forces.
However, using Venezuelan oil to refill the SPR is not as straightforward as it sounds.
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Much of Venezuela’s crude may not meet SPR specifications.
The SPR does not ordinarily accept heavy crude below 22.3 degrees API gravity. Much of Venezuela’s production—particularly from the Orinoco Belt—is extra-heavy and high in sulfur. It cannot simply be pumped directly into salt caverns designed primarily for light and medium crude.
Some Venezuelan oil might qualify after blending or upgrading, but the Department of Energy can reject crude that does not meet its specifications.
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Proven reserves are not immediately available barrels.
The estimated 65 billion barrels represent oil still in the ground. They are not barrels currently sitting in storage tanks or waiting to be loaded onto ships.
Production must first be increased, and the oil must then be processed, transported and exported. Controlling reserves on paper is very different from having oil available to refill the SPR.
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Substantial investment will be required.
Venezuela’s oil industry has suffered from years of underinvestment, mismanagement and sanctions. Increasing production would require major investments in wells, pipelines, upgraders and export facilities.
Heavy crude also typically must be diluted or upgraded before it can be transported and refined conventionally. Building that capacity would require significant capital and several years—not something likely to happen “very shortly.”
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Legal and sovereignty questions remain.
Venezuela’s constitution gives the state control over the country’s petroleum resources. A January 2026 hydrocarbons-law reform opened the door to more private participation, but the precise legal structure of the new agreement remains unclear.
Questions could emerge over sovereignty, contractual rights and whether the interim government has the authority to enter into such a sweeping, long-term agreement.
The bottom line is that Venezuelan oil could eventually contribute to the SPR, particularly if lighter crude is available or heavier grades are properly blended. The previously announced transfer of 30 million to 50 million barrels is also more realistic than refilling the entire reserve. That is not a lot.
However, the suggestion that Venezuela’s oil can quickly “top off” the SPR overlooks the quality mismatch, infrastructure limitations and years of investment that would be required. For now, that claim sounds more like political messaging than a workable near-term plan.
What happened to “drill, baby, drill”?
What about drill, baby, drill. Could we fill the SPR domestically.
US oil production is at record levels and continues to rise.
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2024: Production averaged approximately 13.2 million barrels per day, a record at the time.
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2025: Production increased to a new record of approximately 13.6 million barrels per day, up around 350,000 barrels per day, or 3%.
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2026: The EIA projects average production of approximately 13.8 million barrels per day, with fourth-quarter output approaching 14 million barrels per day.
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2027: Longer-term EIA projections place production near 14.2 million barrels per day.
There are, however, several important qualifications.
First, the increase is a continuation of an existing trend rather than a sudden change that began with the Trump administration. US production rose from approximately 11.3 million barrels per day in 2021 to 13.2 million barrels per day in 2024.
Second, the growth has not been driven by a large increase in drilling. The number of active rigs declined by approximately 5% in 2025, while the number of wells drilled fell by around 1%. Production still increased because companies continued improving efficiency and extracting more oil from each well.
Much of that growth came from the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico, which accounted for approximately 48% of total US production in 2025.
The US remains the world’s largest oil producer. Production is still increasing under Trump, but it is doing so primarily because of continuing improvements in shale productivity—not because of a dramatic new drilling boom.
Why does the Strait of Hormuz matter?
The United States does not directly import a large amount of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Nevertheless, oil trades in a global market. When the closure of the strait reduces worldwide supply, global oil prices rise—including the prices paid by American consumers.
Higher prices benefit US oil producers by increasing the value of every barrel they extract and sell. Consumers, meanwhile, pay more for gasoline, diesel, air travel and other goods affected by transportation and energy costs.
That is why the administration turned to the SPR: not because the United States was suddenly running out of domestic oil, but because it wanted to increase available supply and restrain the surge in global prices.
Oil-company profits surged after the war began
The first full quarter following the start of the war produced extraordinary results for major oil companies.
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Exxon earned $14.5 billion, more than twice its year-earlier profit and its strongest quarter since the 2022 oil-price surge following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. That equals approximately $160 million in profit per day.
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Chevron earned $12.1 billion, its largest quarterly profit ever and more than four times the $2.5 billion earned a year earlier.
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Shell earned nearly $10 billion, its second-highest quarterly profit on record.
Brent crude averaged approximately $104 per barrel during the quarter, up 53% from $68 a year earlier. Higher production earnings were accompanied by sharply wider refining margins as global fuel inventories tightened.
Chevron’s downstream earnings increased from $737 million to $4.9 billion. Its US production also reached a record 2.08 million barrels per day.
The companies were producing more oil, but the biggest boost came from the sharp increase in the price they received for every barrel.
Putting it all together
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The SPR declined by approximately 244 million barrels during the Biden administration, falling from 638 million to roughly 394 million barrels. The drawdown was driven largely by the surge in oil prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
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Since Trump returned to office, the SPR has declined by approximately 107 million barrels—from 394 million to 286.6 million. The administration authorized another major release following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the oil-price surge connected to the US-led war.
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US oil production increased from approximately 11.26 million barrels per day to 13.21 million during Biden’s presidency—a gain of 1.95 million barrels per day, or about 17%.
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Production is projected to approach 13.97 million barrels per day by the end of 2026. That would represent an increase of approximately 760,000 barrels per day, or 5.75%, from the beginning of Trump’s current term.
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Closing the Strait of Hormuz does not materially reduce the direct supply of oil coming into the United States, but it does reduce global supply and raise the worldwide price.
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Higher oil prices have benefited US producers, whose profits surged during the second quarter.
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American consumers have borne much of the cost. The average price of gasoline increased from approximately $2.98 to $4.08 per gallon—a rise of nearly 37%.
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Venezuelan oil could eventually contribute to the SPR, but fully rebuilding the reserve would require compatible crude, substantial investment and considerable time.
Meanwhile, the war continues. The SPR is at its lowest level in more than 40 years. Oil producers are posting enormous profits, while consumers are paying substantially more at the pump (up 37%).
Biden continues to get the blame from the Trump administration but the numbers tell a more complicated story: two administrations, two wars (one started by the US) and two historic drawdowns from a reserve that is becoming increasingly difficult—and expensive—to rebuild. Don’t expect any miracle builds soon. Who is to blame for the decline in the SPR? The wars are to blame. One was started by Russia. The 2nd by the US. Without the Iran/US war, oil prices would be lower, the SPR would likely have been partially replenished with purchases at lower prices. Would it be 638M barrels at the start of the Biden term. Not likely. Could it be at 425M or 475M? That is not out of the question (it was at 415M at the 2025 Trump high).
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
